The cycle that explains why some technologies generate massive expectations — and how to separate hype, trends, and real value over time
There are moments when technology seems to adopt an almost dreamlike language, as if it were promising entirely new worlds. Every year, new innovations enter the global stage accompanied by enthusiastic headlines: “this will change everything.” But between that ethereal atmosphere of promise and the reality that eventually settles into our daily lives, there is a winding path filled with uncertainty.
It was to explain this journey — from novelty to real usefulness — that the technology research firm Gartner introduced a powerful metaphor in 1995: the Hype Cycle. Since then, it has become an essential tool for looking beyond initial excitement and understanding how technologies truly mature over time.
What is the Gartner Hype Cycle?
Imagine a curve that rises sharply as soon as a new idea appears. Attention grows, the media amplifies expectations, and promises multiply, creating what we might call a “wave of inflated expectations.” At this stage, technology is often seen as an oracle, capable of solving complex problems and opening doors to the future.
But this is rarely where the story ends.
After the peak of inflated expectations comes the decline. Promises begin to collide with real-world limitations, early prototypes fall short, and initial enthusiasm gives way to doubt and disappointment. This rise and fall is part of a cycle that — when properly understood — can serve as a compass, helping organizations decide not only which technologies to follow, but when to invest in them and when to proceed with caution.
According to Jackie Fenn, the Gartner analyst who helped formalize the model, the key is not simply to celebrate innovation at its loudest moment, but to place it in a broader context to assess whether it is ready to deliver real value.
Today, the Hype Cycle is widely used by technology and business leaders to evaluate the maturity, adoption, and commercial relevance of emerging technologies.
The five stages of the Hype CycleThe Hype Cycle is made up of five main phases:
Technology Trigger
A breakthrough or innovation appears on the media and business radar. There are few mature products, but high interest and curiosity.
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Publicity intensifies, promises expand, and the technology is portrayed as capable of transforming entire industries.
Trough of Disillusionment
As expectations fail to materialize, enthusiasm fades and many initiatives are reassessed or abandoned.
Slope of Enlightenment
With more real-world experiences and use cases, understanding of the technology’s true value begins to solidify.
Plateau of Productivity
The technology stabilizes, becomes widely adopted, and starts delivering tangible and sustainable benefits.
The question that always remains
Amid constant announcements and bold promises, one question inevitably arises: are we witnessing a profound transformation — or just another wave of enthusiasm that will fade before delivering real impact?
Answering that question requires less urgency and more reflection. Less rush to embrace every new trend, and more willingness to understand it deeply.
Take generative artificial intelligence as an example. Tools like ChatGPT brought it into the spotlight with soaring expectations of unlimited creativity and productivity gains. As those expectations meet real constraints — such as inaccuracies and implementation challenges — many experts suggest the technology has already passed its hype peak and is entering a more critical, realistic phase.
The same can be said for quantum computing, often celebrated as the technology of the future, but still constrained by technical complexity and a lack of mature commercial applications for widespread adoption.
At the same time, there are technologies that have successfully turned promise into value. Intelligent assistants designed for business, for instance, are already delivering concrete results by supporting executives, guiding decisions, and automating processes in real operational environments.
Because true technological revolutions do not happen in the noise of headlines or the excitement of inflated expectations, but in the quiet, persistent transformations that gradually become part of everyday life.
Understanding technology hype, then, is a way to keep our feet on the ground without losing sight of bold ideas — a balance that ultimately drives sustainable innovation.
